Is the housing market going to crash in San Diego? National experts don't expect one. Fannie Mae's latest panel forecasts home prices rising every year through 2030, and even the most pessimistic experts see gains.
I hear it from both sides right now. Some buyers are worried prices are about to drop. Others are hoping they will.
A recent survey from Clever found 58% of Gen Z buyers are rooting for a crash, just so owning a home feels within reach. I understand why. San Diego County is one of the most expensive markets in the country, and waiting for a better deal can feel like the smart move.
So what do the people who forecast home prices for a living actually say?
What the Experts Are Forecasting
Every quarter, Fannie Mae surveys more than 100 housing experts on where home prices are headed. The latest Home Price Expectations Survey is out, and here's the short version:
Prices are expected to rise every year through at least 2030.
The panel's average forecast is 14.7% growth over the next five years.
Even the pessimists expect prices to be up about 6.6% by the end of 2030.
No crash. Not even from the most cautious voices in the room.
The Outlook Has Shifted, Just Not Down
Because this survey runs four times a year, you can see how expert sentiment changes over time.
A year ago, the panel expected prices to grow 2.1% this year. Now they're forecasting 2.5%. The near-term outlook got more optimistic.
Looking further out, 2027 through 2029 are now expected to see a little less growth than the panel predicted a year ago. That reflects the conditions affecting the market right now.
But every year still shows an increase. The pace has moderated, and that's not a bad thing. It's a sign the market is settling into a more normal rhythm after a few wild years. That's healthier for buyers and sellers alike.
What That Looks Like in Dollars
Percentages are helpful, but most people want to know what it means for their own move.
The homes I help clients buy and sell in North County and coastal San Diego typically range from $1 million to $2.5 million. If you apply the panel's average five-year forecast of 14.7% to a $1.25 million home, that works out to roughly $184,000 in added value over five years, from price growth alone.
One important note: these are national forecasts. Prices here can run hotter or cooler, and coastal, inland, and canyon properties don't always move together. That's why local data matters.
What I'd Tell San Diego Buyers
Waiting for a crash isn't a plan the experts support. If prices rise as forecast, waiting could mean paying more for the same home later.
Focus on what you can control. Location, condition, and price. The right home in the right location at the right price holds its value.
Get your financing ready. When the right home comes up, you want to be in a position to act.
Your equity is likely still growing. The forecasts point up, not down.
Pricing and presentation matter more when growth slows. Buyers are paying attention. A home that's priced right and shows well still stands out.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will home prices drop in San Diego in 2027?
National forecasts from Fannie Mae's expert panel call for continued, moderate price growth in 2027. Local results vary by neighborhood, so it's worth looking at recent sales in your specific area.
Should I wait for a housing crash to buy a home?
The experts don't forecast one. Even the most pessimistic panelists expect prices to rise through 2030, so waiting could mean paying more later.
Why is home price growth slowing?
The market is settling into a more normal pace after several years of rapid gains. Slower growth is still growth, and it's generally a healthier market for both buyers and sellers.
Let's Talk About Your Market
Whether you're bracing for a crash or hoping for one, the forecast is the same: prices are expected to keep rising. If you want to know what that means for your neighborhood and your plans, call or text me. I'm happy to help.
Billie Bourgeois | REALTOR® Real Broker | San Diego County, CA DRE# 01703336
